Team A
Team B
Select teams with efficiency ratings (tournament teams) for simulation
sample matchup
Margin Distribution (10,000 simulations)
Bright — likely outcomes (95% window)
Faded — rare, tail outcomes
+Team A leads · −Team B leads
Manual Adjustments
Injury Report
Matchup Signals
Four Factors
Matchup Adjustments
How it works: We simulate 10,000 games using efficiency ratings, pace, four factors, style matchups, and conference strength adjustments. Each team's variance is calibrated to their playing style — some teams are volatile, others are consistent. The result is a full probability distribution, not just a point spread.
Simulation output is for entertainment and informational purposes only. These probabilities are statistical estimates — they are not a recommendation to place any wager. Past model performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer ↓